Edge Report – PA Senate

Stuart Rothenberg has his Political Report for U.S. Senate and House races, today we launch the Edge Report which takes a look at the Pennsylvania Assembly.

Today we will release the Senate races, next week the House.

The current Senate is comprised of 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats. This year the odd numbered Senate seats are up for reelection and of the 15 seats 11 are currently held by Democrats and 14 by Republicans. While the Republicans have the most to lose, district demographics will assure there is not much change this year.

Of the 25 Senators up, six will not be seeking reelection. Democrats Vince Fumo, Gerald LaValle and Connie Williams along with Republicans Gib Armstrong, Roger Madigan and Terry Punt have announced they will not seek their seats this year. Unfortunately none of these seats are ones which will be competitive and will limit the excitement they could generate.

Of the 11 seats held by Democrats, one seat would appear to be in play. The 19th Senate District which was won in a special election by Andrew Dinniman is a Republican district in Chester County and should be held by a Republican if you look at the numbers. This seat will start out as a leans Democrat seat for the incumbent and we will keep a close eye on it.

18 of the 19 Republican seats seem to be solid holds for the majority party. The one seat in play is PA-39. Bob Regola holds the swing seat and won reelection with 52% in 2004. Not exactly the cushion he would want after all he has been through since then. This seat is the most likely to change hands and will start as a toss-up. This seat would be a lean Democrat seat, but even some of the Democratic leaders we have talked to wish they had a stronger candidate.

Incumbents in bold

PA 1
Vince Fumo (D) Not seeking reelection
Lawrence Farnese (D)
Jack Morley (R)
Fumo could have run from a federal jail cell and probably won.
Solid Democrat

PA3
Shirley Kitchen (D)
Robert Nix (R)
85% were would not be a shock for Kitchen
Solid Democrat

PA5
Mike Stack (D)
John Farley (R)
Solid Democrat

PA7
Vincent Hughes (D)
Marc Perry (R)
Solid Democrat

PA9
John Linder (D)
Dominic Pileggi (R)
Majority Leader will be fine
Solid Republican

PA11
Michael O’Pake (D)
Stephen Fuhs (R)
In Berks County they don’t get more popular than O’Pake
Solid Democrat

PA13
Gibson Armstrong (R) Not seeking reelection
Jose Urdanet (D)
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Smucker easily won 4-way primary and General should be even easier
Solid Republican

PA15
Judy Hirsh (D)
Jeffrey Piccola (R)
If Piccola was as popular in the state as he was in his district we would be calling him Governor or your honor.
Solid Republican

PA19
Andrew Dinniman (D)
Steve Kantrowitz (R)
Dinniman stunned the Republican party to win a special election by a wide margin. Holding on to the seat may be a little more difficult in a Presidential year. We will be keeping our eye on this one.
Lean Democrat

PA21
Mary Jo White (R)
No opponent
Solid Republican

PA23
Roger Madigan (R) Not seeking reelection
Louis Trey Casimer (D)
Gene Yaw (R)
Solid Republican

PA27
John Gordner (R)
No opponent
Solid Republican

PA29
Peter Symons (D)
James Rhoades (R)
In 2004 there was talk Rhoades could be in trouble, he won with 66%.
Solid Republican

PA31
Susan Kiskis (D)
Pat Vance (R)
Solid Republican

PA33
Terry Punt (R) Not seeking reelection
Bruce Tushingham (D)
Richard Alloway (R)
Tushingham won a write-in for the right to be on the ballot, but that will probably be his last victory.
Solid Republican

PA35
John Wozniak (D)
Joseph Veranese (R)
At least the Republicans fielded a lamb, I mean candidate, this year
Solid Democrat

PA37
Amy Jude Schmotzer (D)
John Pippy (R)
Pippy seems to get stronger the longer he serves in the Senate.
Solid Republican

PA39
Tony Bompiani (D)
Bob Regola (R)
In 2004 Regola won this swing district with 52% of the vote. With his legal problems over the last year, that is not much of a cushion to start with. This will be a fluid race and we are going to start it as
Toss Up

PA41
Don White (R)
No opponent
Solid Republican

PA43
Jay Costa (D)
No opponent
Solid Democrat

PA45
Sean Logan (D)
No opponent
Solid Democrat

PA47
Gerald LaValle (D) Not seeking reelection
Sean Ramaley (D)
Elder Vogel (R)
Solid Democrat

PA49
Cindy Pirvid (D)
Jane Earll (R)
Solid Republican

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