Gerlach’s dilemma

Publicly Congressman Jim Gerlach would deny ever even thinking about the future while engaged in an election to retain his PA-6 seat, but Inside Edge has talked  to more than one prominent Republican who admits Gerlach would like to take the next step up.

Gerlach, who by the nature of his district, will probably never have an easy reelection.  Running for Congress every two years in such a competitive district is a full time job in itself.  Gerlach may get a couple months off after a successful reelection, but then it's right back to fundraising for the Republican. Gerlach has had enough and would like to make a run for higher office.  But is Gerlach stuck?

There are two state-wide offices that Gerlach could look at, the first being U.S. Senate.  Republican insiders love the idea of Gerlach of running for state-wide office as they believe he could attract enough voters to make him a successful candidate.   His biggest roadblock though is Arlen Specter.  Specter has made no bones about it, he is running for reelection. 

Gerlach has floated his name as a potential gubernatorial candidate too.  But again Gerlach runs into a roadblock.  The likely candidates for the Republicans are Tom Corbett and Pat Meehan.  Corbett will likely have the support of the western Republicans and Meehan will have the backing of the Southeast Republican machine.  Gerlach, being from Montgomery County would need the support of the Southeast infrastructure and money to have a successful run and that support is already pledged to Meehan.  Southeast Republicans are making it known they will be united and they will be behind one candidate.  Meehan is that candidate so Gerlach would have a very hard time finding a winning game plan without that support.

So while Gerlach would love to make 2010 the year he moves up, he may have to wait until 2012 when the seat currently held by Bob Casey comes up.