polls

Could Barack Obama really only be leading John McCain by two percent in Pennsylvania? If you believe the reports leaking out of the Obama camp then yes they are. But let's take a look at the evidence.

Real Clear politics has the average the Keystone State at +10.5 in favor of Obama. The four polls they use to come up with the average range from Obama +8% to +13%.
Big10 Battleground has Obama +11
Morning Call has Obama +10
Quinnipiac has Obama +13
Susqehanna has Obama +8

So how could Obama's internals be so different from the other polls? Could it be Obama is trying to keep the ground troops from being over-confident? Could it be Obama wants the troops working hard to help the down ballot? Could it be they know something about turnout the rest of the pollsters don't?    

A new National Journal poll has been released showing Barack Obama leading John McCain in Pennsylvania, but within the margin of error. The poll conducted September 18-22 shows the economy as the most important issue facing the U.S. Obama lead in the head-to-head matchup by a 43%-41% margin. When asked who was more preparted McCain lead Obama 51% to 31%, but Obama lead McCain 48% to 35% when voters were asked which better understands your needs and priorities.

Barack Obama campaigns with Caroline Kennedy and Sen. Bob Casey in Scranton on Sunday: Getty Images Photo
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 51%-44% among likely Pennsylvania Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released early this morning. Clinton was at 50%-44% last week.

Clinton leads 57%-38% among white voters, and Obama has an 84%-10-% lead among black voters. Women back Clinton 57%-38%, men are for Obama, 53%-43%. White Catholics are overwhelmingly for Clinton, 66%-29%. Voters under age 45 go with Obama, 57%-41%, while older voters go to Clinton by a 54%-40% margin.

"Pennsylvania voters apparently made up their minds a couple of weeks ago and nothing has happened since to change them. An extraordinary turnout effort by Sen. Barack Obama's campaign could snatch this victory from Sen. Hillary Clinton, but that does not appear likely," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.