Paul Kanjorski

WASHINGTON -House Republicans seem to have found one bright spot in an election cycle even they concede is shaping up to be grim: the battle for the seat of U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke), the northeastern Pennsylvania Democrat who is in a life-or-death struggle to win a 13th term in Congress.

"According to our polling, we're still up outside the margin of error and I don't think money can save him at this point," former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Davis (R-Va.) said today.

At a National Press Club luncheon also featuring sitting Democratic Congressional Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Davis conceded that House Republicans faced long odds, and went so far as to predict that the party's losses on Election Day would be in the double-digits. But he kept returning to Kanjorski.

For the second time in a month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has released a poll showing U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) leading Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta in the state's most competitive House race.

In the poll, released Thursday, Kanjorski is leading Barletta by 8 points in the 11th Congressional District, 47 percent to 39 percent.

But once again, the DCCC released almost no details about the poll, making any assessment of its veracity difficult. 

In both cases, the DCCC polls were released after surveys showed Kanjorski trailing Barletta. In September, a Franklin & Marshall College poll had Kanjorski trailing Barletta by nine points, prompting release of a DCCC poll claiming a Kanjorski lead of the same margin.

This week, the DCCC poll came on the heels of an internal Barletta poll showing Kanjorski trailing by 8 points.

WASHINGTON - The cash-strapped National Republican Congressional Committee may be largely quiet on the advertising front, but the conservative advocacy organization Freedom's Watch is ramping up its spending in key House races, launching new advertisements this week in Pennsylvania and a handful of other races.

The organization's new ad in Pennsylvania, out today, accuses U.S. Reps. Chris Carney (D-Dimock Township) and Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) of being "like taxing twins."

"Both supported big tax increases two years in a row," an announcer says. "One would be the largest in our history. Higher taxes on married couples, people with children, retirement savings, even the death tax. Tell Kanjorski and Carney that higher taxes are not the answer, especially now."   

Congressional Quarterly has updated two of Pennsylvania's congressional races. In PA-3 Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper has been upgraded in her race against Phil English from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. A recent poll by Roll Call and Survey USA showed Dahlkemper with a small lead. In PA-11 Republican Lou Barletta has been upgraded from a Leans Democratic to No Clear Favorite against Paul Kanjorski. Recent polls in this race have shown Barletta leading the incumbent.

In Pennsylvania's most competitive Congressional race, swing voters are practically everywhere.

They're in low-income households. They're in union households. They're in Monroe County. They're in Carbon County. They're even in the Democratic base that, by some accounts, is beginning to sour on its longtime incumbent Representative.

The fact that, according to analysts and polling data, so many voters are up for grabs, reflects the close nature of the race for the 11th Congressional District, where Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta is mounting a fierce challenge against U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke). And with a solid 20 percent of voters still undecided, according to a recent poll, the election could swing on any, if not all of these demographics. They're demographics where, surprisingly, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama seems to be outperforming Kanjorski.

But most concerning for Kanjorski, one pollster says, has to be his lack of support among fellow Democrats. In an election year dominated by mantras of change, the 23-year incumbent had only 51 percent of Democrats behind him in a Franklin & Marshall College poll, the only independent poll of the race conducted to date.

"That is, in my judgment, the most telling measure of this race, that in a Democratic district, he's losing party support," Franklin & Marshall pollster G. Terry Madonna told PolitickerPA.com.

Kanjorski's campaign has disputed the veracity of the poll. Democrats offered up a competing poll of their own, but they provided almost no data to support it. And while the Kanjorski campaign would not comment for this article, Barletta political director Lance Stange said it's clear that this is not a typical race.

"This election kind of bucks conventional wisdom, simply because with Mayor Barletta, we're in a unique position where it's not about partisan politics," Stange said.

Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta is leading U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) by 8 points a month before Election Day, according to an internal Barletta campaign poll.

The two are vying for the 11th Congressional District seat, in what is considered Pennsylvania's most competitive House race. The survey of 397 voters, conducted by Susquehanna Polling and Research, closely matches the results of an independent Franklin & Marshall poll last month.

In the Barletta poll, the challenger edges the longtime incumbent 47 percent to 39 percent, with 11 percent undecided. The poll also shows Kanjorski, considered by some to be the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress, having low approval ratings, with only 32 percent of respondents saying he deserves reelection.

Kanjorski campaign spokesman Ed Mitchell said: "We intend to win the only poll that matters--the one on Election Day."

U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Philadelphia) endorsed congressional candidate Lou Barletta on Monday, a move that could help the Hazelton mayor win moderate voters in the largely Democratic district. 

Barletta faces U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) this fall in the 11th Congressional District, considered one of the country's most competitive races.

Specter and Barletta do not see eye-to-eye on every issue, especially immigration. Barletta has become known nationwide for his anti-illegal immigration stance while mayor of Hazelton.

Specter is considered a much more moderate Republican and has advocated for degree of amnesty for illegal aliens in the past.

But the two had only kind words for each other in a statement released by Barletta's campaign.

"Lou Barletta has won the confidence of both parties and that's really quite an accomplishment," Specter said. 

If U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) caught flak from constituents for his support of a $700-billion bailout bill that failed to pass the House Monday, he didn't show it today.

Kanjorski, considered by many to be the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress, again supported a bailout package, this time voting for amended legislation approved by the Senate.

Kanjorski is facing a tough challenge from Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta in the 11th Congressional District. After Kanjorski's initial vote for the bill Monday, his campaign spokesman said the longtime incumbent had "stood up for the principle" and did not "take into account political considerations."

When your line of attack agaisnt your opponent is they are neglecting their duties as an elected official, but then admit the opponent is attending all their meetings, it's time for a new line of attack. That lands Tony Bompiani on this week's Winners & Losers list.