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PLYMOUTH MEETING-Democrat Matt Bradford was projected to narrowly unseat state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford) Tuesday night, fulfilling Democratic hopes that the candidate who was only added to the ballot over the summer could capture a GOP seat in Montgomery County.

With all of the precincts reporting, Bradford was winning by about two-and-a-half points, or 813 votes. He won largely on the strength of huge showings in Norristown, where as a municipal administrator he helped lead the town out of a fiscal crisis.

Moyer, a freshman who won the 70th Legislative District seat by only 103 votes in 2006, could not be reached late Tuesday night. But a local radio station reported that he had conceded.

It's been a tough couple years for the Montgomery County Republican Committee. Registration gains that were already moving in the Democrats' favor accelerated greatly with the excitement over the presidential race. Factions of the party are split, with the two Republican County Commissioners locked in a political feud that has given Democrats more control of local policy, and seats long-held by the GOP seem increasingly in danger.

County Republicans hope they can emerge from this political minefield on Election Day and bolster their sagging presence in the Philadelphia suburbs. There are Democratic seats in state legislature they hope to capture, and Republican seats where they hope to stave off fierce challenges. By some counts, at least five Harrisburg offices are in play. A best-case scenario could do wonders for the party organization. A worst-case outcome, though, could cement its minority status in the county for the coming years.

"This will be a pivotal moment," said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College. "It's been a tough run for Republicans in Montgomery County over the last few years. If they have another bad night and see a lot of these down-ballot races break from them, it will further confirm that the county is slipping away from them."

It's only been a couple months since Matt Bradford even got on the ballot. But with Montgomery County Democrats having high hopes that he can unseat state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford), he has burst out of the gate and built up a relatively robust campaign war chest.

In what was effectively the first fundraising period of his brief abbreviated for Harrisburg, Bradford collected more than $260,000, according to his campaign finance report filed Friday. He has had to spend quickly to make up for lost time; after shelling out about $225,000 during the 5th cycle, he had almost $30,000 in cash on hand for the home stretch before Election Day. He also raised almost $90,000 from in-kind contributions.

Out of a slate of potentially competitive state House races in Montgomery County, Democrats are pinning their highest hopes on Bradford capturing the 70th Legislative District seat held by the freshman Moyer. The incumbent's latest campaign finance report had not yet been published on the Department of State Web site Monday evening, and his campaign manager did not immediately return a request seeking the latest fundraising numbers.

Local Democrats tapped Bradford this summer to replace nominee Dwayne Royster, who stepped aside for personal reasons. They see Moyer as vulnerable because he beat Democrat Netta Young Hughes by only 103 votes in 2006. Democratic registration in the district has increased since then, and Bradford is considered a stronger candidate than Hughes. Moyer, for his part, told PolitickerPA.com recently that his moderate, bipartisan voting record would appeal to the large number of Independent voters that could still swing the election. The race was ranked one of PolitickerPA.com's Top 5 most competitive state House races.

In quickly building up his campaign coffers, Bradford relied heavily on support from local and state Democrats. Between early August and the middle of October, the Montgomery County Democratic Committee gave Bradford five contributions totaling $114,000, according to the report. In-kind contributions from the House Democratic Campaign Committee and the state Democratic Party were also significant.

Most of those contributions covered campaign mailers, communication and polling. The HDCC spent $27,000 on Bradford's campaign, and the state Democratic Party spent more than $48,000.

This article is by Dan Hirschhorn in Philadelphia and Alex Roarty in Harrisburg.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, PolitickerPA.com turned to resident political insiders to help determine which state House races are the most competitive in Pennsylvania. As Democrats try to expand their narrow majority, Republicans try to take back control of the chamber and candidates throughout the state encounter changing demographics in the electorate, there is no shortage of tightly-contested races.

The five ranked below, starting with the most competitive and with incumbents listed first (one open seat being the exception), are just a way to start the conversation.

Don't agree with the order? Think we've left important races out? Want to make a list of your own? We invite you to post comments.

Throughout the state, down-ballot Democrats have rejoiced in their party's voter registration gains spurred by a historic presidential primary, a contested general election and overall distaste with the national GOP brand. Thursday morning, Democratic state House candidate Matt Bradford e-mailed his supporters with his own good news.

Bradford, who is running to unseat state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford) in Montgomery County's 70th Legislative District, announced that Democrats now outnumber Republican in the district. The margin stood at 222 voters Thursday morning, with new registrations still being counted.

"We are on the road to victory," Bradford wrote.

Area Democrats have been confident for months that Bradford can beat the freshman Moyer. In 2006, Moyer beat Democrat Netta Young Hughes by 103 votes. Republican outnumbered Democrats in the district by more than 5,000 voters at the time, and most party insiders consider Bradford to be a stronger candidate than Hughes. Bradford has been forced to run an abbreviated campaign, entering the race only this summer after the previous party nominee, Dwayne Royster, stepped aside for personal reasons. Still, in a slate full of state House races in the county, no candidate has county Democrats as excited about capturing a GOP seat as Bradford.

In an interview with PolitickerPA.com Thursday afternoon, Moyer said he hoped his moderate, bi-partisan voting record-he says he has sided with Gov. Ed Rendell often-and his appeal to the more than 6,000 Independents in the district would overcome any changed registration patters.

"Even though there are more Democrats now ... I'm hoping that the people of the 70th who vote on Nov. 4 will take a look at my voting record and know that I'm with them," Moyer said. "I've been their independent voice.

"I can't tell you how many people in our district are proud of the fact that one member of the family's a Democrat and one's a Republican," he added. "I'm very proud of my record. I'm going to stand on my record, and I don't think it really matters to the people 70th if there are more Democrats than Republicans."

Democrat Matt Bradford is airing his first advertisement in his bid to represent the 70th Legislative District.

The 30-second spot (embedded below) is a soft biographical piece, featuring Bradford on camera talking about his upbringing and his family. It starts with the candidate recalling working in his parents' flower shop.

"That shop was their hope and our family's best chance for a better future," he says, telling voters he wants to be their state Representative to "be an advocate for families who are searching for their own chance for a better future."

The ad is airing on local cable, campaign manager Rob Zolitor said.

Bradford is running against state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford). Two years after Moyer almost lost to a less experienced candidate, Democrats in Montgomery County have high hopes that Bradford can capture the seat.

Just over a month after getting on the ballot but with his campaign already in full swing, Democratic state House hopeful Matt Bradford is officially launching his race for Harrisburg Wednesday evening.

To celebrate the opening of his campaign office in Norristown, Bradford will be joined by, among other officials, Montgomery County Commissioner and former Congressman Joe Hoeffel and state Sen. Connie Williams (D-Montgomery).

Bradford is running against state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford) in the 70th Legislative District. With Moyer only narrowly winning in 2006 and Bradford expected to run a more competitive campaign, Democrats in Montgomery County are targeting the seat as one they hope to capture. 

CONSHOHOCKEN -- At a fundraiser here Thursday evening, Democratic state House candidate Matt Bradford got a nice introduction from one of the biggest names in Montgomery County politics.

Joe Hoeffel, a County Commissioner and former Congressman, said that Bradford "brings a kind of rare combination of youthful enthusiasm that you would expect ... but he matches that with an extraordinary amount of experience."

Below is a PolitickerPa.com video of Hoeffel's introduction and Bradford's brief speech to supporters:

Joe Hoeffel, right, Matt Bradford, center, and Rob Zolitor, left, at a Bradford fundraiser Thursday: Hoeffel, the Montgomery County Commissioner and former Congressman, introduced Bradford, the Democratic state House candidate for the 70th District, at a fundraiser in Conshohocken. Zolitor, the campaign manager, collected the checks, almost $10,000 worthCONSHOHOCKEN -- Matt Bradford got a late start in his bid for a state House seat in Montgomery County, replacing Democratic candidate Dwayne Royster on the ballot barely a month ago, after Royster stepped aside for personal reasons.

But if a fundraiser held for Bradford here Thursday evening is any indication, the promising 33-year-old candidate will get plenty of help making up for lost time from his many friends in local governments. About 25 people showed up at Conshohocken Councilman Paul McConnell's house to support Bradford, who is running against state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford) in the 70th Legislative District. Many of those in attendance work in area municipal governments.

There was Montgomery County Commissioner and former Congressman Joe Hoeffel calling Bradford a "bright and energetic young man." There was Conshohocken Councilman Jason Salus, a longtime friend of Bradford's who organized the fundraiser, saying Bradford would be "a great asset to the legislature." There was Plymouth Township Councilman Vincent Gillen, Plymouth Councilwoman Mary Lou Readinger and Whitemarsh Township Supervisor Leslie Richards schmoozing with the candidate.

Conshohocken itself is not in the in the district Bradford hopes to represent-it is in state Rep. Mike Gerber's (D-Whitpain) 148th Legislative District. And many of his supporters at the fundraiser were also from outside the 70th District. But as Bradford acknowledged to PolitickerPa.com as he left to knock on doors, "I'm going to need support from a lot of quarters."

He got off to a good start Thursday night, collecting nearly $10,000, campaign manager Rob Zolitor said.

With a promising new candidate in their race to capture yet another state House seat, Montgomery County Democrats are readying a campaign push and seeking volunteers for Matt Bradford's campaign.

Bradford, who replaced Dwayne Royster on the ballot last month, is a former Norristown administrator whose reputation as a shrewd campaigner has many Democrats hoping he can unseat state Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford) in the 70th Legislative District, which includes Norristown and Worcester townships.

As the county Democratic Party pointed out in an e-mail to supporters this morning, Moyer won the 2006 election by only 103 votes.

“This year we can win!” the email declared, while calling for volunteers to help with mailings and other work. “The 70th District is turning Blue, and it is up to us to make sure it does. The only way to make sure we win on November 4th is for Matt to get his message out to as many voters as possible, and to get it out fast.”