In General Assembly, most signs point to another tough year for the GOP

This article is by Alex Roarty in Harrisburg and Dan Hirschhorn in Philadelphia

It's been two years since Democrats took narrow control of the state House of Representatives for the first time since 1994. Voters gave Democrats nine more seats in 2006, enough for a one-member majority, in part because of a wave of anti-war, anti-Republican sentiment that swept across the country in the midterm elections.

Now, despite a concerted effort to retake the majority, the Pennsylvania Republican Party could be headed for another tough Election Day, some pollsters and analysts say.

"I do not see much of a chance for the Republicans to take back the House," said Terry Madonna, a pollster and political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster.

Chris Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said the state has shifted to the left as national opinion of the GOP plummets.

"The idea of [the GOP] making gains, even the most minimal, has to be seen as a bit of a reach right now," he said.

More bad news arrived for state Republicans this morning, when Quinnipiac University released a poll showing U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) leading U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) by 12 points in Pennsylvania in the race for president. If Obama actually wins the state by a margin even close to that, Democrats in down-ballot races will almost certainly benefit.

But the House Republican Campaign Committee counters those predictions, saying the poor performance of house Democrats while in charge gives the GOP a good chance to retake the majority control. The GOP points to a withering investigation into potentially improper pay-raises that has focused on House Democrats and lingering dismay at the often slow pace of reform in Harrisburg.

"Realistically, I think we have a very good chance," said committee spokesman Al Bowman

"Right now, their record has put just about every geographic region in play," he added. "I'm glad we are where we are, we're not where they are."

He labeled, among other races, the 161st Legislative District race, featuring incumbent Democrat Bryan Lentz (D-Delaware County) taking on Republican Joseph Hackett, and the 142nd Legislative District race, featuring incumbent Democrat Chris King squaring off against Republican Frank Farry, as "opportunities."

Democrats took both districts from Republicans in 2006 by fewer than 5 percentage points.

"We're really confident going into the fall, and hopefully we can take back this majority and get Pa. back on track," Bowman said.

Despite the one-member disparity, Republicans will probably need to win both races, or any other combination of two campaigns, to retake the House. Speaker of the House Dennis O'Brien (R-Philadelphia) is considered a Democrat by most Republicans after the party elected him to the position in 2007.
Analysts zeroed in on the state's western half, filled with Reagan Democrats, as the region Republicans could most likely make gains.

Joseph DiSarro, chairman of Washington & Jefferson College political science department, said he thinks the 15th Legislative District race, featuring incumbent Democrat Vince Biancucci against Republican Jim Christiana, could swing to the GOP. Christiana is DiSarro's former student.

"I think right now Republicans chances are good," he said.