Some Philly races just not up for grabs

Republicans who run for office in the staunchly Democratic city of Philadelphia are often called sacrificial lambs, providing their time to campaign even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 5-1.

Al Taubenberger, the Republican who was thumped by Michael Nutter in last year's mayoral race, admitted as much, often saying he was running to make Nutter a better mayor-and to send a message about the lack of a two-party system in Philadelphia.

Now, in an election year widely expected to be a difficult one for the GOP, the outlook for Republicans in Philadelphia may be even more bleak. Democrats, incumbents and newcomers alike, are raising significantly more money than their Republican opponents. Some suburban seats may be up for grabs, but from state House races to bids for the U.S. Congress, Republican and Democratic analysts and consultants agree that most seats within the city proper are simply out of reach for Republicans.

"With the exception of a couple of wards in the northeast ... nothing short of a flat-out indictment or scandal is going to win for any Republicans," said Neil Oxman, a longtime Democratic consultant in Philadelphia.
Elliott Curson, a longtime Republican advertising guru, agreed.

"Right now, I don't see it," he said of Republican prospects in the city. "If [incumbents] were vulnerable, they would have been knocked off in the primary."

The voter demographics speak for themselves, with Democratic registration gaining ground on Republican numbers throughout the state for the last decade.

But the financials, revealed in recent state and federal campaign finance reports, can be even more jarring.

U.S. Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia) has raised almost $130,000 in his bid for reelection in the 2nd Congressional District, as of April 2. His Republican opponent, law professor Michael Livingston, raised just over $10,000 in the same period.

"We don't get to do TV basically," Livingston told PolitickerPA.com this afternoon, saying he plans to focus more of his advertising money on radio and local newspapers.

"I don't see myself as a sacrificial lamb at all," he added. "I think we'll raise a lot more money."

U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, the chairman of the Philadelphia Democratic Party, has raised over $180,000 in his bid for re-election as of April 2. His opponent, swimming pool contractor Mike Muhammad, has not reported financial activity.

"Democrats have fundraising advantages in all these races," Oxman said. "It's not even going to be close."

The numbers are just as ominous for Republicans running for state offices. Larry Farnese, a Center City lawyer running for the state Senate in the 1st District, is over half-a-million dollars in debt from a competitive primary race. But he still had about $19,000 in cash as of May 22, far more than the approximately $2,000 raised to date by his Republican opponent Jack Morley.

"To date, only my close circle of friends has supported me," Morley said.

State Sen. Shirley Kitchen (D-Philadelphia) had more than $8,000 on hand as of May 22 for her reelection bid in the 3rd District. Her opponent had less than $2,000. State Sen. Vincent Hughes (D-Philadelphia) had almost $99,000 on hand, exponentially more than the $1,845 in his opponent's coffers.

G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said the only way for Republicans in Philadelphia to win elections was to run wealthy businessmen who could support their own campaigns.

A Republican hasn't occupied the mayor's office in 60 years, but twice, in 2000 and 2004, wealthy Republican lawyer Sam Katz came tantalizingly close.

"You have to run sort of a Sam Katz campaign," Madonna said. "Republicans aren't going to win by running conventional politicians."

Obstacles aside, no Republican candidate seems eager to embrace the role of sacrificial lamb.

"I am not a token candidate," Morley insisted. "The Democrats have been in power. When will voters start to realize that their ideas are not getting it done?"