In PA-11, no shortage of swing voters

In Pennsylvania's most competitive Congressional race, swing voters are practically everywhere.

They're in low-income households. They're in union households. They're in Monroe County. They're in Carbon County. They're even in the Democratic base that, by some accounts, is beginning to sour on its longtime incumbent Representative.

The fact that, according to analysts and polling data, so many voters are up for grabs, reflects the close nature of the race for the 11th Congressional District, where Republican Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta is mounting a fierce challenge against U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke). And with a solid 20 percent of voters still undecided, according to a recent poll, the election could swing on any, if not all of these demographics. They're demographics where, surprisingly, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama seems to be outperforming Kanjorski.

But most concerning for Kanjorski, one pollster says, has to be his lack of support among fellow Democrats. In an election year dominated by mantras of change, the 23-year incumbent had only 51 percent of Democrats behind him in a Franklin & Marshall College poll, the only independent poll of the race conducted to date.

"That is, in my judgment, the most telling measure of this race, that in a Democratic district, he's losing party support," Franklin & Marshall pollster G. Terry Madonna told PolitickerPA.com.

Kanjorski's campaign has disputed the veracity of the poll. Democrats offered up a competing poll of their own, but they provided almost no data to support it. And while the Kanjorski campaign would not comment for this article, Barletta political director Lance Stange said it's clear that this is not a typical race.

"This election kind of bucks conventional wisdom, simply because with Mayor Barletta, we're in a unique position where it's not about partisan politics," Stange said.

"I would think the demographic that's most in play would be working families," he added. "They're the ones that are hardest-hit by high energy prices, they're the hardest-hit from the economic conditions, they're the hardest hit from health care costs."

Comparing the Franklin & Marshall poll's findings in the House race with its findings in the race for president provides a good benchmark for where the battle between Kanjorski and Barletta stands. While Obama nets the support of 44 percent of women in the district, only 35 percent back Kanjorski. Only 42 percent of households with a union member back Kanjorski in the poll, compared to 53 percent for Obama.

"It shows you that he's having trouble with blue-collar working class voters," Madonna said. "I wonder how his vote on the [recent financial] bailout is sitting with them."

And then there are the battleground counties, typically Monroe and Carbon counties. Barletta leads in Carbon by 7, while Kanjorski leads in Monroe by 11.

"I think we're talking about blue-collar, working-class Democrats that Kanjorski has to do better with," Madonna said. "It's a blue-collar, working class district, and he's not doing well with voters with a high school education or less and low-income voters."

Both candidates are advertising heavily, and whether those numbers for Kanjorski pick up the coming weeks could well determine if his days in Congress are numbered.