Two years out, a crowded, unclear field for governor’s mansion

Gov. Ed RendellPennsylvanians won't cast their general election ballots for the next governor for more than two years. But with attention squarely focused on this year's presidential race, a large field of potential contenders are already lining up, each one sizing up his chances to succeed two-term Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell.

It's a surprisingly crowded field for how far away the election is, a field political watchers and analysts describe as impressive on both sides of the aisle. And with neither an incumbent nor a state household name in yet in play, most are forecasting a race that will be difficult to predict, one in which almost anyone could come out on top.

"It's an election that could go any way at the moment," said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster. "I don't see a clear favorite or even a clear party."

Longtime political consultant Larry Ceisler said: "I think you're going to have a lot of people running, and I think whatever I'm saying today, I will probably refute in 2010."

Dan OnoratoIf there are any favorites at this early stage, there's also disagreements on who they are. On the Democratic side, Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato clearly has the head start, largely because of support from party establishment in the state.

But on the Republican side, things are less clear. Some spotlight Attorney General Tom Corbett, who assuming he wins re-election this fall, could draw important support from the western parts of the state.

"If he wins re-election, he'll be strong," said Elliott Curson, a longtime GOP political consultant.

Patrick MeehanOthers see former U.S. Attorney Patrick Meehan as a more promising candidate.

"I think because of Meehan's statewide political experience, working with [U.S. Sen. Arlen] Specter, working with [former U.S. Sen. Rick] Santorum, I think he's probably a tad more savvy," Ceisler said. "And I think that coming out of Southeast PA for a Republican can be an advantage."

The only thing for certain is that none of the early frontrunners will march to their party's nomination easily. Onorato is expected to be hotly challenged by Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham and Auditor General Jack Wagner.

Meanwhile, the whole Democratic field could be turned Tom Knoxupside-down by Philadelphia millionaire businessman Tom Knox, who is also considering a run. Knox spent heavily from his own pocket in an unsuccessful mayoral run last year. But his ability to spend heavily and his name recognition in the Philadelphia area are both potent variables. State Senate Minority Leader Bob Mellow of Lackawanna is also said to be mulling a run for the Democratic nomination.

On the Republican side, a number of candidates could disrupt what some currently see as a two-way race between Meehan and Corbett. Pat ToomeyFormer U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey, former Lt. Gov. Bill Scranton and former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum are all said to be considering runs, though Santorum in particular would likely face a tough race four years after being voted out of his U.S. Senate seat.

"Looking back, we haven't really had a lot of elections like this where it seems to be completely wide open," Borick said.