Pollster says forget the Philly suburbs: Carney, Kanjorski and English are the races to watch

By Dan Hirschhorn, PolitickerPA.com Reporter

Despite loads of talk about competitive Congressional races in the Philadelphia suburbs, there are growing indications that the real races to watch are elsewhere in the state. Independent political reports have increasingly spotlighted the 3rd, 10th and 11th Congressional Districts as the most competitive, and G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster said that's where his polling resources are likely to be concentrated.

Madonna told PolitickerPA.com that Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta's challenge to U.S. Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-Nanticoke) in the 11th district, as well as Kathy Kahlkemper's challenge to U.S. Rep. Phil English in the 3rd district and Chris Hackett campaign against U.S. Rep Chris Carney (D-Dimock) in the 10th district, will be the most competitive.

He did question recent reports that Kanjorski's race against Barletta is close to a toss-up, saying that while the race would be competitive, Kanjorski's long-held ties in the district would see him through the race.

Madonna downplayed assertions that Republicans Craig Williams and Tom Manion are likely to unseat U.S. Reps. Joe Sestak (D-Egdmont) and Patrick Murphy (D-Bristol). Not that those districts will go unwatched, as they are likely to be key swing areas in the state's presidentail race.

Madonna said he will likely poll in the 3rd, 10th and 11th district races instead of the ones in the Philadelphia suburbs.

DAN HIRSCHHORN is a PolitickerPA.com Reporter and can be reached via email at danh@politickerpa.com.

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Comments

Philly Suburbs

posted by Edward Nigma

While Sestak and Murphy are likely to hold onto their seats (likewise Gerlach), many State House races in the area are bound to go down to the wire. Keep in mind, the Democrats only have a one seat majority in the State House.

In DelCo alone, Bryan Lentz (D-161) has been getting a ton of positive press recently in his race for reelection. John Defrancisco in the 162nd district has been solidifying the support of the rank and file of area unions.

So just because the Congressional races might not be all that close doesn't mean you can't be involved in a tight finish in the Philly suburbs. Look into your State House races!

07/30/08 1:24 pm

162nd

posted by Paco

While I agree that the Letnz seat will be a seat to watch -- Joe Hackett is very well liked by local residents and has really been getting down to work knocking on doors -- I don't believe for a second that the 162nd will be competitive.

Defrancisco's opponent, Nick Miccarelli has already picked up the endorsements of the districts two largest unions, the Machinists and the UAW. While Defrancisco may be getting the state unions to endorse him, its going to be the unions on the ground and with real ties to the district who will vote and carry the water on election day. It says alot about Miccarelli to be able to pick up those major endorsements as a Republican.

Defrancisco's running a huge uphill battle there. I don't give him a chance.

07/30/08 2:35 pm

Hackett is a fraud with no

posted by Guy

Hackett is a fraud with no issues to run on. His website hasn't even worked in over a month. He must be getting campaign advice by his longtime friend, Tom Gannon.

07/31/08 12:26 pm