Bonusgate could be trouble for Western Pa. Ds, but others OK, analysts say

By Alex Roarty, PolitickerPA.com Reporter

HARRISBURG -- Political analysts said that in the wake of Thursday's charges in "Bonusgate" western Pennsylvania Democrats, including House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (D-Greene County) might have to worry about their jobs in November.

The rest of the caucus? Not so much.

The impact of the first-round of indictments will not be enough to reverse the state's leftward trend, pundits contacted by PolitickerPA.com agreed, because most liberal lawmakers still don't have a connection with the scandal.

Terry Madonna, a state political analyst at Franklin & Marshall College, said even if House Democrats lose a few seats in the western part of the state, they are still likely to at least make up the difference in suburban Philadelphia.

"Democrats have also largely "inoculated" themselves from this problem because of the series of reforms they made in 2006 following the pay-raise scandal, he said.

"I honestly don't think it is a devastating blow to Democrats as they try to increase their majority," Madonna told PolitickerPA.com.

Muhlenberg College analyst Chris Borick said the corruption comes across as isolated.

"The existence of scandal is not going to knock off a lot of Democrats ala Watergate did for Republicans in the 1970s," Borick said. "Other than a shadow cast upon them as a group, there's not a lot of direct ties to rank-and-file members all over the state."

But the same might not go for legislators who do have that connection, including DeWeese. He has not been charged, but Corbett painted his former chief of staff, Mike Manzo, as a mastermind behind the bonus network.

"If there's anybody this comes home to roost with, it's DeWeese," Borick said.

DeWeese beat Republican challenger Greg Hopkins by 4.5 percentage points in 2006, 10,035 votes to 8,994. He faces Hopkins again this year in a race Republicans were already optimistic about.

Jeff Coleman, former GOP lawmaker who now works at Churchill Strategies, said this year will be "by far" DeWeese's biggest re-election test.

"Bill Deweese will be answering a lot of questions," Coleman said. "The test for him is going to be on front porches -- does he have the focus, charm and stamina? He did that in 2006. He's a warrior on the campaign trail."

But Coleman cautioned that Republicans must walk a fine line when they criticize DeWeese because he has not been charged.

"How the Republicans ... manage the district is going to be telling," he said. "It's always important not to overplay their hand."

But the lawmaker most affected by today's revelations is undoubtedly state Rep. Sean Ramaley, who is running to replace state Sen. Gerald LaValle (D-Beaver County) in the 47th senatorial district. Corbett charged Ramaley with, among other things, theft by unlawful taking, theft be deception and conspiracy.

Four paragraphs of Corbett's written remarks focus on allegations that Ramaley in 2004 accepted a position in former Minority Whip Mike Veon's (D-Beaver County) district office after he won the 16th Legislative District's Democratic primary. Corbett says it was a "non-work job" used solely to help Ramaley fund-raise and campaign.

Ramaley faces Republican Elder Vogel this fall.

Coleman said Thursday's revelations "reset the game" in Ramaley's Senate race, although he said he, and probably most others, hadn't closely analyzed the match-up.

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