Russell predicts 4-point victory over Murtha
By Alex Roarty, PolitickerPA.com Reporter
NEW STANTON -- Republican Congressional candidate Bill Russell knows predicting victory will likely jinx his chances.
But because he said he already predicted victory to a supporter a few days ago, he figured it wouldn't hurt if he did so again to PolitickerPA.com.
"We're going to win by 4 points," Russell said, shortly after his mid-day rally next to a Days Inn. "If that's a jinxing move, it's already happened."
Predicting victory against 34-year incumbent U.S. Rep. John Murtha (D-Johnstown) would have been met with laughs and eye-rolls two months ago, even from dedicated Republicans. Russell's own campaign, although dedicated, knew toppling the western Pennsylvania institution would take a political miracle.
But perception of this race has changed dramatically the past month. A poll commissioned in late October by The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review showed the congressman leading by fewer than 5 points. A week earlier Murtha made his now in-famous remarks to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's editorial board, calling his western Pennsylvania district a "racist area." He later called them "rednecks" during a botched apology.
Murtha's comments were the first time it seemed he might not coast to his 15th term. The DCCC and NRCC both soon reacted -- each has bought nearly a half-million dollars worth of ads in the 12th Congressional District.
But for Peg Luksik, Russell's campaign manager, the realization came a month earlier. The campaign had commissioned an internal poll to see which issues Russell should focus on.
It showed Murtha's support below 50 percent, a worrying sign for a long-term incumbent whose opponent was still barely known.
Luksik said that moment, not when Murtha called some of his constituents racists, was when she realized Russell had a legitimate chance to unseat the congressman.
Murtha's comments and the attention they brought to the race, Luksik said, in fact alerted Murtha he needed to campaign.
"I'm sorry about the comments now," she said.
Murtha's campaign has focused on Russell's recent move to the district -- he previously lived all over the world while on duty with the U.S. Army, most recently in Virginia. The congressman has accused Russell of being a carpetbagger, someone who moved here from Virginia at the sign of a political opportunity.
The incumbent's campaign likes to contrast that with the congressman's long history in the area. Murtha has a clear record of creating jobs and defending the district's faimies, said his spokesman, Matthew Mazonkey.
"William Russell's record is also clear -- he doesn't live here, doesn't understand our area, and doesn't care about representing us in Congress,"Mazonkey told PolitickerPA.com. "The good people of Western Pennsylvania understand this, and they're going to send Jack Murtha to a 19th term of representing them."
Most Pennsylvania political pundits will say they believe Murtha is on the precipice of losing.
They just don't think he will lose.
"I still feel he'll win," said Joseph DiSarro, chair of the Washington & Jefferson College political science department, sentiment that mirrors the thoughts of all pundits contacted by PolitickerPA.com this week.
The pork that Murtha brings to the district will carry him to victory, he said.
"He'll pull it out," DiSarro said.
The Russell campaign's Luksik calls the race a "dead heat."
Regardless of Tuesday's outcome though, Luksik said the campaign already has made a difference.
"Whether we win or lose Tuesday, we've already changed Jack's behavior."
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Im predicting a Murtha Win
Im predicting that Murtha will beat russell. Voters would have to be stupid to vote for this guy. He's not from western PA and he moves right in to run for congress. What an opportunist. We already know that his George Bush loving policies would damage the district.
Murtha
In the end, you would put the most Junior member of Congress in a minority seat on a committee that means nothing. He (Russell) would have no leverage in a Congress run by 24 more Democrat's than they have now. Murtha might have made a few botched comments, but his record for Western PA and frankly all of PA is clear. He loves his state and his District and works hard to bring positive development here.
Military Live Where Their Told
Enough about being a "carpetbagger" already. Bill Russell's not only a retired military officer, but he's also a military brat to boot. If the guy chooses to live in Western PA after growing up AROUND THE WORLD and then serving "where the Army told him to", then so be it. All you Democrats looking for CHANGE need not look so far! Say goodbye to Murtha.
RUSSELL IS LOST AGAIN
Russell is LOST again...Holds ‘Final Campaign Rally' in WRONG Congressional District
JOHNSTOWN, PA - William Russell ONCE again shows he lives in Virginia, and announced a ‘final campaign rally' in New Stanton this afternoon. When you're staging an event, and bussing in people from outside our region, it makes perfect sense to hold it in a place like New Stanton. That is, if you're planning on running against Congressman Tim Murphy, because New Stanton is in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District.
Now some might say that William Russell doesn't own a map, and others might say that he's quite happy staying in hotels when away from his home in Virginia. But the truth is, William Russell doesn't understand Western Pennsylvania, and is unfit to represent us in Congress.
And one other thing - Russell will be gathering outside the district with people that will make false claims about Congressman Murtha's position on guns and veterans. More lies from a campaign of lies. Murtha is endorsed by the NRA, and if you've haven't heard our radio ad featuring Chris Cox from the NRA, it's very persuasive. Murtha is also endorsed by the VFW-PAC, VoteVets.org, and has an ‘A' rating from the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America.
Jack Murtha knows his district, and his final rally will be with President Bill Clinton at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, which is in fact in the 12th Congressional District. Doors open at 2:00 p.m. on Monday.
Come on PA, get with the program!
I'm a western Pennsylvania native, a former Marine officer, lifelong Republican, and I currently live in DC. I have to tell you, when I look at this race, the choice is obvious to me... Murtha needs to go.
Listen Pennsylvania, you need to stop playing party politics and elect the man, not the party. I'm supporting Barack Obama this year, not because he's a democrat, but because I believe he's a serious thinker who has the temperament and intellect to solve the serious problems we face today. That said, Murtha is an idiot. It's widely known in Democratic circles inside the Beltway that he's someone to be dealt with... a liability. The man makes Joe Biden look like the model of discipline. From accusing Marines of heinous crimes in Iraq (all but one were acquitted) to calling his own constituents racist, the man is no longer fit for public office, period.
Pennsylvania, your choice is simple... vote for change, or vote to keep your old senile uncle around, shooting off at the mouth and making you look stupid. The question they ask on Capitol Hill, is "Who the hell keeps re-electing the moron?" and that's the Democrats...
We are... we're re-electing Murtha
We're with the program. We dont like outsiders coming in here and trying to tell us what to do. If we followed your suggestion, it would be to your satisfaction and our detriment.
Outsider?
Jesse,
I'm western PA born and raised, and I still vote in PA as my home of record... I just thought you might want to know what the people who actually work with our Rep. have to say about him.
By the way, looking forward, do you think Murtha has the credibility left to get anything for Western PA in the next Congress? He's ticked off most within his party with his comments, and you're much better off having a rep that people will take seriously.
Outsider?
Jesse,
I'm western PA born and raised, and I still vote in PA as my home of record... I just thought you might want to know what the people who actually work with our Rep. have to say about him.
By the way, looking forward, do you think Murtha has the credibility left to get anything for Western PA in the next Congress? He's ticked off most within his party with his comments, and you're much better off having a rep that people will take seriously.
Clean House
When one realizes the dire state of this nation it should prompt them to vote for a moral, ethical person who would best represent them.
To vote for a man who is devoid of morals and ethics only for "what he can do for me" Vs what he can do for our country is self-serving and destructive.
Jack Murtha has been in D.C. too long; so long that he now believes, as Specter, Schumer, Dodd, Kennedy and others do - that they are monarchs, not public servants.
ACORN's registered "Mickey Mouse" would better represent Western PA than would Jack Murtha. Fortunately, voters do not have to decide between Murtha and Mickey Mouse, as you have a viable, ethical candidate in Bill Russell. It's time for people in Western PA to regain the dignity they deserve.
It's time for somene new
Lets get a new fresh face in there, someone that won't embarrass us by shooting off at the mouth. Murtha has served his time, thank you for your 34 years in Congress, now retire already.
It's time for somene new
Lets get a new fresh face in there, someone that won't embarrass us by shooting off at the mouth. Murtha has served his time, thank you for your 34 years in Congress, now retire already.
You're an idiot. Murtha is a
You're an idiot. Murtha is a military HATING BIGOT. He dislikes the REDNECKS from PA. He speaks NEGATIVELY of his own constituents. You must be a weak minded moveon.org moron.
Get Jack out
I can't understand it. Jack calls our soldiers murderers, his people Rednecks and racist-This man Murtha has NO REPECT FOR ANYONE ! How can you vote for a man like that? He is just an Angry little fat man !
How can he be an opportunist
How can he be an opportunist when he signed up to run against Murtha far before Murtha's stupid comments when he was still predicted to win by a landslide while coasting? That is opportunism? If he signed up after Murtha made an idiot fool of himself, then Russell would be an opportunist carpetbagger; but since he obviously didn't choose Western PA for an easy district, I don't think you're criticism holds up at all.
If it's OK for Hillary to be a carpetbagger
It's ok for Russell. Or does it only apply to Democrats who will twist the laws any which way to serve their purposes? The ends justify the means.
Phil I couldn't said it any
Phil I couldn't said it any better, a vote for Russell is slitting the wrists of all 12th district residents.
Voters would have to be
Voters would have to be stupid to vote for this Woman. She's not from New York and she moves right in to run for senate. What an opportunist. Oh wait, that was Hillary.
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