W&J professor thinks DeWeese safe

A surge in voter turnout and success at the top of the Democratic ticket will likely propel House Majority Leader Bill DeWeese (D-Greene County) to re-election despite last week's bombshell testimony from the longtime incumbent's former chief of staff, a southwest Pennsylvania political science professor tells PolitickerPA.com.

DeWeese faces a rematch this fall against Republican Greg Hopkins, whom he defeated in 2006 by little more than a 1,000 votes. Since 2006, DeWeese has become embroiled in the latest Harrisburg scandal, "Bonusgate," which Hopkins has used to portray the majority leader as corrupt and out of touch.

Bonusgate might have been enough to push Hopkins to victory in 2006, said Joseph DiSarro, chairman of the Washington & Jefferson College department of political science. But 2008 has "a new set of variables," he said, primarily a presidential election likely to drive many longtime Democrats who didn't vote in 2006 to cast a ballot this year. 

"Turnout is going to be much higher," DiSarro said. "(2008 and 2006) are absolutely different scenarios."

And although Barack Obama's presence atop this year's ticket was likely going to hurt DeWeese a month ago, the professor said the country's economic crisis, which has clearly favored the Democratic presidential nominee, has shifted the balance.

Not only has the crisis made voters in the 50th Legislative District more favorable to Democrats, DiSarro said, it has changed what issues they care about.

"Bonusgate ... I just do not see it as an important issue given the economic downturn," he said. "People are going to be looking for a change back to the Democratic Party."

DeWeese told PolitickerPA.com he thinks constituents know about his efforts to root out his caucus' corruption and won't pay much attention to Manzo's allegations. The majority leader also said he has knocked on thousands of doors the last two election cycles as part of an effort to directly connect with voters.

DiSarro said he has noticed DeWeese's renewed enthusiasm for campaigning and added that the incumbent has a significant financial advantage over Hopkins.

"He has a substantial war-chest compared to Hopkins," DiSarro said.

DeWeese's money, combined with his seniority and its ability to bring state money to the district, will give him the votes he needs, DiSarro said.

"I do not believe Bonusgate will be enough to unseat Bill DeWeese," he said.