Paisley gives himself 55 percent chance at earning ballot place

Independent candidate Jay Paisley's chance at earning a spot on November's ballot will likely come down to Friday's deadline.

The former Democrat, who is challenging Republican Elder Vogel and Democrat Sean Ramaley in the 47th Senatorial District, told PolitickerPA.com he has collected 1,000 signatures as of Wednesday afternoon -- half the number needed to be put on the ticket. About 60 of his volunteers will continue scouring for signatures until Friday morning if necessary, Paisley said.

He gave himself about a 55 percent chance of success.

"But if we don't," he said, "the honest to goodness reason is we just ran out of time."

The candidate declared his intentions to run just 10 days ago after Ramaley was one of 12 people charged as part of "Bonusgate." Attorney General Tom Corbett alleged Ramaley took a job with former Minority Whip Mike Veon that allowed him to campaign full-time as a state House candidate in 2004 while being paid a state salary.

Whether Ramaley will stay in the race has been the subject of intense speculation since the charges were announced.

Despite Ramaley's declaration otherwise, Paisley said he will eventually, if reluctantly, step down.

"From my impression, he honestly, feels he's innocent, and he's having a problem dropping out because it's an admission of guilt," Paisley said.

Who would replace him on the ballot? Beaver County Commissioner Joe Spanik has received much of the buzz, but Paisley doesn't think he will be the choice.

"My sources tell me it's going to be Jason Petrella," he said.

Petrella narrowly lost to Ramaley in the primary when both men ran to replace retiring state Sen. Gerald LaValle (D-Beaver County). Petrella has told the Beaver County Times he would be interested in replacing Ramaley if asked.

Democrats have expressed concern that if Paisley, who ran against Veon in 2004, gets on the ballot, it would open the door for the Republican Vogel to capture the heavily Democratic area.

That's why Paisley is sure the party will challenge his petition if he collects enough and submits them to the State Elections Bureau in Harrisburg. To prevent from being thrown off the ballot, Paisley said he is trying to collect about 200 signatures more than needed. The extra signatures would give him a 10 percent cushion for some to be thrown out, he said.

He also wanted Democrats to know throwing him off the ballot won't prevent him from campaigning.

"If the Democratic Party machine knocks me off, I guarantee I'll run a write-in campaign," he said. "Let the Democratic machine think about that."

But make no mistake, Paisley said, he's running the campaign to win, not to play spoiler.

"I talked to ... hundreds of people on walking tracks, baseball games, hot dog shops, supermarkets -- the general consensus is they do want a third choice," he said. "Even many former Veon supporters signed my petition ... they don't way a lackey of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party but somebody who will be beholden to the people."